It is unclear where exactly the ships are heading. Mr Van Lokeren told BBC Verify that they could be en route to Libya, where the Kremlin already boasts a significant military presence supporting the Tobruk-based warlord Khalifa Haftar.
Last week, Ukrainian military intelligence told BBC Verify that Russian flights had transferred military personnel and equipment from Russia’s other Syrian base – Hmeimim – to airbases in Libya at least 10 times since mid-December.
However, Mr Van Lokeren also suggested that the ships could be bound for Russia, where he said there was a “large probability that the military equipment might end up being deployed on the frontline against Ukraine”.
Dmitry Gorenburg, an expert on security issues in the former Soviet Union at Harvard University, told BBC Verify that the movements suggested Russia’s presence at Tartous was coming to an end.
“I don’t know whether additional ships will be needed to remove everything or not, but to my mind that’s largely immaterial,” he said. “It’s just a question of time until Russia’s military presence at the base is concluded. We shall see what comes after.”
Graphics by Mark Edwards.
