College football Week 10 preview: Who needs a win more

College football fans have been treated to several top-five matchups in the first half of the season, all of which have lived up to the hype.

There was Alabama’s epic 41-34 victory over Georgia in Week 5. There was Oregon’s 32-31 narrow win over Ohio State in Week 7. And then there was Georgia’s 30-15 triumph over Texas back in Week 8.

This weekend, another top-five showdown is set to take center stage in Happy Valley as No. 3 Penn State hosts No. 4 Ohio State in what should be an epic Big Ten matchup (Noon ET on FOX and the FOX Sports App).

FOX Sports college football writers Laken Litman, Michael Cohen and RJ Young are here to answer the biggest questions heading into the matchup:

No. 4 Ohio State travels to Happy Valley to take on No. 3 Penn State on FOX. Who needs this game more: Ryan Day or James Franklin?

Laken Litman: Ryan Day.

If Ohio State didn’t already have one loss to Oregon, then the answer might be different. But Day and Ohio State can’t afford to have two Big Ten losses. That would effectively take the Buckeyes out of conference championship contention, which is something this team hasn’t won since 2020. Not making it to the Big Ten Championship game wouldn’t disqualify OSU from the College Football Playoff, but it would make that path way more challenging.

For Ohio State, this season is national championship or bust. Day utilized the transfer portal better than most, veteran stars decided to come back for another year rather than go to the NFL, and Chip Kelly joined the program as the offensive coordinator. The Buckeyes have a lot going for them this year, and another loss would simply be maddening for this team.

Michael Cohen: It has to be Day, right? Nearly four years have passed since Ohio State last qualified for the Big Ten Championship game — a veritable eternity in a place like Columbus — and with one conference loss to Oregon already on his resume, Day can’t afford a second league defeat against the Nittany Lions. Dropping Saturday’s game to Penn State would all but eliminate the Buckeyes from the Big Ten title race considering two of the three unbeaten teams ahead of them would also hold head-to-head tiebreakers over Ohio State. And while failing to qualify for the conference championship game wouldn’t necessarily preclude the Buckeyes from winning a national title given the expanded College Football Playoff field, the pressure to achieve that goal would reach astronomical levels amid rampant speculation about Day’s future. Ohio State must win this weekend to preserve some measure of sanity over the final month of the regular season.

The scenario for Franklin is far more manageable in a year when the Big Ten gave the Nittany Lions what has proven to be a favorable conference schedule: Penn State avoids Oregon, Michigan, Iowa and upstart Indiana this season. So while the narrative about Franklin’s inability to beat quality opponents will inevitably resurface if the Nittany Lions fall at home on Saturday — he’s 1-13 against top-five teams during his time at Penn State — the path toward the school’s first appearance in the College Football Playoff remains incredibly clean. The Nittany Lions will be favored in all four of their remaining games against Washington, Purdue, Minnesota and Maryland and could ease into the postseason with an 11-1 record that would match the program’s best mark since 2008. A loss wouldn’t be the end of the world for Penn State.

RJ Young: Ryan Day.

Ohio State has done everything it can within the limits of the rules to build a roster not just capable of winning the national title, but to win it in style. Day recruited difference-makers from last year’s team — from Cody Simon to Jack Sawyer to Denzel Burke to Emeka Egbuka — while adding transformative transfer portal additions Quinshon Judkins, Caleb Downs and Will Howard, among others.

Day handed off the playcalling duties to his mentor, Chip Kelly, while doing his best to fortify a coaching staff that understands the Buckeyes have three goals this season: 1. Beat Michigan. 2. Win the Big Ten Championship. 3. Win the national championship. If the Buckeyes lose to Penn State on Saturday, they’re not likely to qualify for the Big Ten title, which would extend a streak of four years without Ohio State winning the title it had won four years in a row from 2017-2020.

Franklin is 1-9 against Ohio State and hasn’t beaten the Buckeyes since 2016. A win for him might be transformative for how Penn State fans feel about not just the 7-0 Nittany Lions, but the prospect of winning the program’s first national title since 1986 with a win against the most talented Buckeye team of the last five years.

What is the winning formula for Ohio State to leave Beaver Stadium with a win?

RJ: Be explosive. Lean on Will Howard’s ability to throw down field to those personified cheat codes in Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate. Penn State will struggle to score against Ohio State if this team simply plays the kind of football it did for the first five games of the season when the Buckeyes averaged 46 points per game. In those games, they also rushed for 222 yards on average, but that was with a healthy offensive line. Without left tackle Josh Simmons, the Buckeyes will have to try to find creative ways to run the ball. But a great way to do that is to force Penn State to backpedal.

Laken: For starters, get pressure on the quarterback. James Franklin said this week that starting QB Drew Allar will be a game-time decision after he left Penn State’s win over Wisconsin last week at halftime with an apparent knee injury. Backup Beau Pribula came in and completed 11 of 13 passes for 98 yards and a touchdown to finish the game. So Ohio State needs to make whoever is playing quarterback –Allar, who could be limited, or Pribula, who doesn’t have as much experience – uncomfortable. The Buckeyes will also need to stop the run. The Nittany Lions’ dynamic duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen are one of the best running back tandems in the country, and the offense could end up relying on them even more depending on the quarterback situation.

Michael: The two things that immediately come to mind are both defensive objectives for the Buckeyes and their embattled coordinator Jim Knowles: 1. Find ways to pressure the quarterback on an afternoon when the Nittany Lions are relying on either an injured version of starter Drew Allar, who hurt his knee in the win over Wisconsin last weekend, or an inexperienced backup in Beau Pribula during what might be the first start of his career and 2. Maintain strict eye discipline and adherence to defensive principles against the formational oddities presented by Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, who will certainly have some unique wrinkles up his sleeve, just as he did when the Nittany Lions took down USC in overtime earlier this month.

Ohio State’s inability to generate pressure with a traditional four-man rush prompted Knowles to be more aggressive during last week’s win over Nebraska. The Buckeyes brought six- and even seven-man blitzes at times on critical third downs throughout the game to test true freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola, who completed seven of 11 passes for just 29 yards against the blitz and was sacked three times in those situations, according to Pro Football Focus. It’s fair to wonder if Knowles will be similarly aggressive against Penn State regardless of which quarterback is on the field, whether it’s Allar with potentially limited mobility or Pribula in what would be the largest dose of playing time he’s experienced against a high-quality opponent.

Either way, cornerbacks Denzel Burke and Davison Igbinosun will need to play with far more discipline than they’ve displayed in recent weeks. Burke endured the worst game of his career against the speed and double moves from Oregon’s receiving corps, surrendering eight catches on eight targets for 179 yards and two scores. That the average depth of target against him this season is 11 yards downfield — nearly 3 yards deeper than any other corner on the roster — speaks to how vulnerable opponents believe he is on vertical throws. And Igbinosun, the former Ole Miss transfer, remains the most penalized player on Ohio State’s defense with seven accepted penalties, most of which have come via grabbing and holding for obvious pass interference calls. There’s little question the Nittany Lions will be looking to exploit both players for downfield gains.

Conversely, what is the winning formula for Penn State to beat Ohio State, which would be the Nittany Lions’ first win over the Buckeyes since 2016 ?

Michael: One of the more interesting statistics from Ohio State’s narrow win over Nebraska last Saturday was time of possession. The Cornhuskers, who put together four drives in excess of four minutes each, kept the ball for more than 35 minutes and finished with a time advantage in all four quarters. The second and third quarters were particularly lopsided as Nebraska exceeded 19 minutes of possession in those two periods combined, simultaneously shortening the game and fatiguing an Ohio State defense that lacks depth in the trenches.

All of which is to say that it might be wise for Penn State to adopt a similar ball control strategy this weekend, especially given the uncertainty at quarterback after Allar suffered a knee injury in the win over Wisconsin last Saturday. The tailback duo of Nicholas Singleton (483 yards, 3 TDs) and Kaytron Allen (509 yards, 4 TDs) is among the best in college football this season and could find some success against an Ohio State defense that yielded 4.3 yards per carry to Nebraska tailback Dante Dowdell and also allowed a 38-yard scramble to Raiola. Somewhat surprisingly, the Buckeyes now rank 57th nationally in defensive stuff rate, according to College Football Data, which is a metric that tracks the percentage of run plays stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage. That bodes well for the Singleton-Allen pairing that combined for 196 rushing yards and two touchdowns against then-No. 19 Illinois in Penn State’s most difficult game of the season to this point. The Nittany Lions won the time-of-possession battle by more than seven minutes over the Illini in an eventual 21-7 win.

RJ: Run the ball. Let Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton — one of the best tailback tandems in the country — do as much heavy lifting as they can. The Buckeyes have proven susceptible to a good run game from a top-five opponent — just watching the Oregon game. And just last week, Dylan Raiola managed to rush for 37 yards through the middle of the OSU defense without an armed escort. Beau Pribula might do better. And in the passing game? Pick on Denzel Burke and Davison Igbinosun. Burke has struggled in coverage downfield, and Igbinosun is likely to grab opponents if they can run by him. Engineering matchups for Tyler Warren to exploit could prove the difference in a game that might be decided by a field goal, like this one.

Laken: Because we don’t know about Allar’s status, it’s even more important that Penn State’s defense has a standout performance. The Nittany Lions’ unit is limiting opponents to 14.3 points per game, has only allowed four rushing touchdowns this season, and is ranked fourth overall in the country. Their pass defense is in the top 20, but will have its hands full given that Ohio State has a top 15 scoring offense and electric receivers like Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka. Quarterback Will Howard is completing 74% of his passes (third best in the country) and leads an explosive Buckeyes offense that is one of six teams to have six plays of 50 yards or more this season.

Regardless of which QB plays, Penn State has a tough assignment. And if Pribula gets the nod, the Nittany Lions definitely won’t want to find themselves down multiple scores with a backup quarterback.

How will the result of this game impact the College Football Playoff picture?

Laken: : If Ohio State loses, it will be its second loss of the season after narrowly falling to Oregon a few weeks ago. There will most likely be two-loss teams to make the CFP, but the Buckeyes would prefer not to be in that conversation. Penn State is one of a select few unbeaten teams, and is still in good shape to make the 12-team field even with one loss. Especially considering the Nittany Lions have a winnable schedule left, with matchups against Washington, Purdue, Minnesota and Maryland. Ohio State’s remaining schedule is a bit tougher, with Purdue, Northwestern, No. 13 Indiana and Michigan.

Regardless of what happens, though, both of these teams could still make the CFP.

RJ: This game will shuffle the top 10, but there’s little reason to believe either of these teams won’t make the College Football Playoff. Even with a loss, Penn State’s schedule looks like one where 11-1 is likely. And if Ohio State is able to defeat undefeated Indiana later this season, it’s likely to be a top 10 win with losses to the No. 1 and No. 3 teams in the country. However, if either program wants the chance to play in the CFP as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions, a win in this game is paramount.

Michael: Assuming that Penn State can avoid a slipup in its finishing stretch against Washington (home), Purdue (away), Minnesota (away) and Maryland (home), this week’s battle with Ohio State feels like something of a free hit for the Nittany Lions in the expanded College Football Playoff era. Should head coach James Franklin guide his team to a win on Saturday — which would be arguably the biggest win he’s had in Happy Valley — then Penn State is all but assured of qualifying for the CFP for the first time in program history, barring some kind of monumental collapse in the final month of the season against overmatched opponents. And if Franklin loses on Saturday but takes care of business for the remainder of the regular season, then it’s highly unlikely that a one-loss Penn State team would be left out of the playoff. So, to some extent, merely reaching this game unblemished affords the Nittany Lions the chance to play with a bit of house money.

The picture is far cloudier for Ohio State because of its loss to Oregon earlier this month and an extremely weak non-conference schedule that featured Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall. To this point, the Buckeyes still don’t have a win over a ranked opponent. But that could certainly change against Penn State this weekend, at which point Ohio State could claim one of the single-best wins in college football this season and afford themselves some breathing room ahead of an unexpectedly high-profile game with Indiana on Nov. 23. There’s still a chance that a two-loss Ohio State could qualify for the CFP, assuming both losses were competitive, though it certainly wouldn’t be guaranteed. But dropping this weekend’s game to Penn State would put the Buckeyes in a precarious and pressure-packed position over the final month of the season. They would have two conference losses against the league’s two best teams and no margin for error when facing the Hoosiers or archrival Michigan in the finale.

Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She previously wrote for Sports Illustrated, USA Today and The Indianapolis Star. She is the author of “Strong Like a Woman,” published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her at @LakenLitman.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast “The Number One College Football Show.” Follow him at @RJ_Young.

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.

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