If you want to know whether NFL coaching decisions really have an impact, then perhaps first take a look at how oddsmakers respond.
For example, when it comes to regular-season win totals, a starting quarterback is, of course, an important factor … one would think.
But not always, as we learned Wednesday when Pittsburgh Steelers coach Mike Tomlin tabbed Russell Wilson as QB1 over Justin Fields.
“We made no adjustments based on Tomlin’s announcement,” SuperBook senior risk supervisor Casey Degnon said.
That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement of Tomlin’s decision, though neither is it a strong criticism.
The SuperBook’s Degnon and Chase Michaelson help shed a little more light on betting for the Steelers’ season win total.
Eight Is Enough
When The SuperBook opened NFL season win totals on May 19, Pittsburgh’s number was set at 8. The Over was a -130 favorite, meaning it takes a $130 bet to win $100 ($230 total payout). The Under was a +110 underdog, so a $100 bet would win $110 ($210 total payout).
Three-plus months later, the Steelers are still at 8, with the Over -130 and the Under +110.
Choosing Wilson over Fields was a six-of-one/half-dozen-of-the-other proposition for oddsmakers.
“They’re both below-average options who don’t move the needle either way. Plus, we expected it to be Wilson,” Michaelson said.
Added Degnon: “It feels like the Steelers are going to lean on their defense and just ask their QB to take care of the football, no matter who was named the starter.”
Russell Wilson named the Steelers starting QB
With the regular season a week away, Degnon said The SuperBook is seeing more bets placed on Over 8 wins, but there’s more money on Under 8.
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Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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