While Trudeau has weathered many storms, there are signs that his time may be up.
For one, history is not on his side. Only two Canadian prime ministers – Sir John A MacDonald and Wilfrid Laurier – served four consecutive terms.
Trudeau is also working against a sinking popularity. A September poll from Ipsos suggested around two-thirds of Canadians disapprove of him. Just 26% of respondents said Trudeau was their top pick for prime minister, putting him 19 points behind Conservative leader Poilievre.
And then there’s the slowly dwindling support within Trudeau’s own party. So far, at least 18 Liberal MPs have called for their leader to step down.
“He’s delusional if he thinks we can continue like this,” New Brunswick MP Wayne Long told reporters this week.
“It’s unfair to us MPs, it’s unfair to the ministers and most importantly it’s unfair to the country. We need to move on with a new direction and we need to reboot.”
According to Long, who has driven the push to remove Trudeau, as many as 50 of the 153 Liberal MPs want him to quit immediately. Roughly the same number are Trudeau loyalists, he said, and the rest are on the fence.
“There’s still some party loyalists who like him and, you know, want to still support him,” said Mr Martin, the DC-based columnist. “But if you had a secret vote of Liberal caucus about whether he should stay on or not, he would be defeated handily.”
The prime minister is also seemingly driven to stay by his disdain for his political opponent Poilievre, Mr Martin observed.
“He does not want to back down, and he does want to take on Pierre Poilievre, whom he detests,” he said.
Trudeau’s stubborn perseverance in the face of a dismal political forecast has drawn comparisons to outgoing US President Joe Biden, who abandoned his candidacy months before the November election only after mounting internal pressure.
Prof Blake said that Trudeau’s legacy, like Biden’s, will hinge on how he exits. Fighting a losing battle, he said, could give Trudeau “a lasting scar”. But the prime minister has a remarkable ability to survive, he noted.
“He’s been a survivor, and he hasn’t done what’s normal. Will normal – whatever it is – fall into place this time? Perhaps, but I’m not convinced.”
Trudeau’s dilemma is also similar to one faced by his father, who won three elections in a row, and went on to win a fourth after leaving power for less than a year.
But by 1984, more than 15 years after first becoming prime minister, the elder Trudeau – like his son now – faced dire polls. It seemed clear he would not win the next election if he stayed on. He decided to step down, telling the public that he made the decision after taking a walk in an Ottawa snowstorm.
Since then, the term “walk in the snow” has become synonymous with political resignation in Canada. This Christmas, it remains to be seen whether Trudeau will take his own walk.
